By Patricia L Johnson
Just finished reading a New York Daily News article stating the latest Gallup Poll shows Governor Romney is now ahead of President Obama by a whopping seven points based on Gallup’s poll of ‘likely’ voters.
When I quit laughing at the absurdity, I decided to take a look at how Gallup came up with their spiffy nifty poll numbers.
My idea of a poll is as follows: You call up xxx number of registered voters, representing Republicans, Democrats and Independents and you ask the following question.
If the Presidential election were to be held today would you vote for President Barack Obama, the Democrat or would you vote for Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate?
When you’re all done you add up the number of registered voters that would vote for Romney and the number of registered voters that would vote for Obama and you have a winner! Voila’
The problem with my poll is it doesn’t provide the means for playing games with the numbers so it would never work in our real world of deceptive politics.
For some reason Gallup does not think asking a registered voter who they’re going to vote for is the way to go so instead of asking potential voters one question; they ask seven more and then they weigh the questions and answers. Their method of polling is so complex they have a full page of explanations called “Understanding Gallup’s Likely Voter Procedures for Presidential Elections“.
If you read the fine print you’ll see that Gallup may or may not use all answers to all questions, so why bother asking?
My first problem with their polling is they do not start with registered voters. I mean really and truly who cares how someone may vote if they are not even registered to vote? Do you care who Charlie Chimp down the street might vote for if Charlie isn’t registered to vote? I don’t.
If you have some time take a look at their polling procedures and then ask yourself how much credence anyone in this country can give a Gallup poll?
© 2012 Patricia L Johnson